Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."